Seven thoughts on the state of the Toronto Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs are providing plenty of reasons for optimism as the playoffs near. Justin Bourne breaks down the team’s promising play as of late.

Former captains and current Cup champs. Top-pair defencemen and elite playmakers.

Yes, even with several franchise studs and key support players signing pocket-padding extensions way before deadline and avoiding the stress of free agency, the NHL’s 2025 UFA class still sets up to be an intriguing one.

And with the salary cap guaranteed to rise by $7.5 million — to $95.5 million — those spendy general managers should have even more budget to splash the pot on the next Steven Stamkos or Jake Guentzel to test the open waters.

Here’s a rundown and ranking of hockey’s best impending unrestricted free agents, plus the latest buzz circulating about their future.

Trade deadline has long passed, so free agency now looms large as the next window to remake your favourite team’s roster.

1. Mitch Marner

Age on July 1: 28
Position: Right wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $10.9 million

The latest: Once Mikko Rantanen got traded for a second time (and not for Marner) and signed his eight-year, $96-million extension with Dallas, Marner shot to the top of the charts. And the rest of the pack lags behind what is undisputedly the most coveted pending UFA of 2025.

The Toronto Maple Leafs superstar, management, and agent Darren Ferris are all on the same page when it comes to handle what could be Marner’s final tour with his hometown team: Silence is golden.

Marner had previously expressed a desire to re-sign, yet he has rebuffed the Leafs’ attempts to negotiate in-season and has now positioned himself to take a run at not only becoming the NHL’s highest-paid winger but highest-paid player.

If he tests the market.

“Growing up in this area, I’ve always been a Leafs fan. I’ve always wanted this team to succeed and to win just to see what that would feel like fanwise. Now being part of it is very special,” Marner said at training camp.

“It’s my home. It’s the place I’ve grown up. I’ve got many, many memories watching this team play Saturday night hockey with my family. Sitting there for hours watching.”

Marner came up clutch for Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off and has been Toronto’s most valuable player this season.

So, the onus falls on Brad Treliving — who bought high on peak William Nylander last winter — to either extend Marner at the best rate possible or make quick adjustments if he walks.

When the Carolina Hurricanes proposed a Rantanen-for-Marner trade at the deadline, Treliving brought the idea to Marner, who refused to waive his no-move clause.

So, here we are: A team unsure if its star winger wants to stay, and an in-demand talent who holds all the power over his future.

Flip a coin.

2. Nikolaj Ehlers

Age on July 1: 29
Position: Right wing / Left wing
2023-24 salary cap hit: $6 million

The latest: Unlike the monster extensions for centre Mark Scheifele and goalie Connor Hellebuyck signed in 2023 just ahead of their walk years, all is quiet in Winnipeg on the Ehlers extension front.

A frequent subject of trade rumours, the speedy Dane was reportedly open to a change of scenery in the off-season, according to The Fourth Period.

The Jets are the toast of the Western Conference, and the (roughly) point-per-game winger is tracking career highs in assists and points under new coach Scott Arniel.

Kevin Cheveldayoff has been noncommittal on the topic, often saying that he hopes his Jets win a Stanley Cup with Ehlers in June.

Ehlers himself says everything is business as usual.

If he has come this far, though, one must wonder if it’s worth a peek behind the curtain. 

Competing teams would surely try to outbid the Jets for Ehlers’ services this summer in a market thin on 25-goal scorers.

3. John Tavares

Age on July 1: 34
Position: Centre
2023-24 salary cap hit: $11 million

The latest: Already top 70 on the NHL’s all-time scoring list, the still-productive Tavares is not entertaining any notions of quit.

While his captaincy was removed by the new GM and his ice time chopped by the new coach, the proud Toronto Maple Leaf is still a force in the face-off dot, a threat on the power play and below the hash marks, and the consummate professional.

Armed with a full no-move clause and understanding he’s up for a pay cut, Tavares has already shown a willingness to sacrifice a little me for the sake of the we.

His agent, Pat Brisson, and Treliving did begin some preliminary extension talks in September — and it’s clear that Tavares wants to stay.

The Maple Leafs, however, are letting things play out. As much as Tavares would like to put pen to paper yesterday, Toronto has other priorities.

Tavares and wife Aryne are raising three young children in the city. He is close to the necessary support of extended family. He has benefitted from multiple outside endorsement deals. And he did score the clinching goal of the one series the Leafs have won since ex-GM Kyle Dubas backed up the Brink’s truck with $77 million.

“I love playing here. It’s a remarkable place to play,” Tavares said. “And when I committed here six years ago, obviously I saw a tremendous amount of talent and an amazing hockey market and organization that’s fully committed to winning and doing whatever it can — and I still feel that way.”

Critics will point to Tavares’s age. Defenders will argue that he slid seamlessly into the No. 1 centre role when Auston Matthews got injured and is still producing at point-per-game pace.

As the best centre available, a $7 million AAV wouldn’t be too much to ask for on the open market. But Tavares would rather not pack his bags. How much of a hometown discount will he take?